The World Bank projects global commodity prices will hit a six-year low by 2026 due to weak economic growth, increasing oil surplus, and policy uncertainty, with declines expected in 2025 and 2026.
Key Points
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The World Bank Group’s Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts global commodity prices to hit a six-year low by 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.
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The decline, projected at 7% in both 2025 and 2026, is driven by weak global economic growth, an expanding oil surplus, and ongoing policy uncertainty.
- This trend signals continued challenges for commodity markets amid economic and supply pressures worldwide.
The World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts a significant decline in global commodity prices, projecting them to hit a six-year low by 2026. This anticipated decrease represents the fourth consecutive year of falling prices, signaling persistent downward pressure across commodity markets. The forecasted trend is driven by several interrelated factors, chief among them being sluggish global economic growth, which dampens overall demand for commodities.
In addition to weak demand, an expanding surplus in oil supply contributes substantially to this price depression. The excess oil availability exacerbates the oversupply situation in energy markets, further pressuring commodity prices downward. Compounding these challenges is ongoing policy uncertainty, which undermines investor confidence and market stability, limiting potential price recoveries in the near term.
Quantitatively, the World Bank expects commodity prices to decline by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, underscoring the depth and persistence of this negative pricing environment. Together, these elements paint a complex picture of commodity markets characterized by structural oversupply, subdued demand, and geopolitical and policy complexities that collectively drive prices to levels unseen in over half a decade.
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