In June 2025, China and Central Asian states signed a treaty enhancing trade, connectivity, raising concerns over debt, environment.
Key Points
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In June 2025, China signed a Treaty of Permanent Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation with five Central Asian states, institutionalizing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This multilateral treaty enhances trade, connectivity, and digital cooperation while raising concerns over debt and environmental impacts. It mirrors ASEAN’s non-hierarchical structure and prohibits alliances against other parties, fostering strategic trust.
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The treaty reflects Central Asia’s increased agency amid unresolved ethnic and border issues. Positive developments, such as Tajikistan-Uzbekistan relations and resource-sharing agreements, indicate integration momentum. China’s BRI ambitions interweave with regional cooperation, underlining its impact on local dynamics and raising questions about dependence and environmental concerns.
- At the June 2025 China–Central Asia Summit, Xi Jinping and Central Asian leaders signed the treaty, addressing regional autonomy amid China’s growing influence and Russia’s declining role. The summit emphasized deepening economic and political ties. Discussions highlighted China’s cautious approach to Russia and the evolving power landscape in Central Asia.
In June 2025, China and five Central Asian states signed a Treaty of Permanent Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, aiming to institutionalize the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This treaty seeks to bolster connectivity, trade, and digital cooperation, fostering a new regional order. While it enhances China’s influence and promotes regional integration, concerns have been raised about potential debt dependencies and environmental impacts linked to BRI projects.
This multilateral treaty distinguishes itself from typical bilateral agreements by emphasizing a non-hierarchical structure, akin to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. It promotes strategic trust through legal frameworks rather than military alliances. However, Article 3, which prohibits joining alliances against other parties, may create perceptions of exclusivity.
Central Asia, historically plagued by ethnic and border disputes, is witnessing positive developments, such as improved Tajikistan-Uzbekistan relations and resource sharing agreements. These changes underscore the increasing agency of Central Asian nations and China’s role as a key facilitator in regional dynamics. Through the BRI, China’s ambitions are tightly interwoven with local cooperation efforts, highlighting its substantial impact on the region.
Moreover, the treaty sparks discussions on China’s growing influence relative to Russia’s diminishing presence in Central Asia. China’s expanding trade and investment are reshaping the power landscape, although President Xi Jinping remains cautious about affecting Sino-Russian relations, especially in light of geopolitical concerns like Russia’s Ukraine actions.
Overall, this new treaty marks a significant step in regional diplomacy, balancing economic ambitions with complex geopolitical considerations. It reflects both the opportunities and challenges inherent in China’s expanding role in Central Asia, as nations navigate new partnerships and address underlying tensions.