The Bank of Thailand lowered 2025 foreign arrival forecasts from 39.5 million to 37.5 million due to a nearly 30% drop in Chinese tourists, influenced by shifting travel preferences and economic concerns.
Key Points
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The Bank of Thailand lowered its 2025 foreign arrival forecast from 39.5 million to 37.5 million, mainly due to a nearly 30% drop in Chinese tourists, expected at 5 million versus 6.7 million in 2024 and 11 million pre-pandemic.
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Economic concerns, including potential U.S. trade tariffs, influence the outlook, with two scenarios considered that could further affect tourism numbers.
- The decline in Chinese visitors stems from changing travel preferences toward domestic trips or Japan, safety concerns, and slower economic growth, with tourism spending per visitor also declining.
The Bank of Thailand has downgraded its foreign arrival projection for 2025 from 39.5 million to 37.5 million visitors, primarily driven by a dramatic nearly 30% reduction in Chinese tourists. Chinese arrivals are anticipated to fall to 5 million, markedly lower than the 6.7 million expected in 2024 and significantly below the 11 million recorded pre-pandemic in 2019. This steep decline constitutes a critical factor in the overall revision and raises concerns about Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy.
Several underlying causes contribute to the contraction in Chinese tourism. Beyond perceived safety issues—such as the high-profile kidnapping of a Chinese actor and reports of organized crime targeting Chinese tourists—there appears to be a substantial shift in travel preferences among Chinese travelers. Increasingly, Chinese tourists are opting for domestic travel within China or alternative international destinations like Japan, further diminishing Thailand’s share of this crucial market.
Economically, the Bank of Thailand is also factoring in broader uncertainties stemming from international trade dynamics, particularly regarding potential U.S. trade tariffs. The central bank is evaluating two contrasting tariff scenarios—one involving lower tariffs and another higher—that could exacerbate downward pressure on inbound tourism. This economic volatility, coupled with slower growth forecasts from research institutions like KKP Research and Kasikorn Research Center, signals reduced contributions from Thailand’s traditional growth engines such as tourism, manufacturing, and exports.
To counterbalance the manufacturing sector’s downturn, Thailand faces the daunting challenge of significantly increasing tourist arrivals to as many as 70 million annually by 2030. However, even as tourist numbers continue to grow overall, the average spending per visitor is declining, with Kasikorn Research projecting a 3% decrease in foreign tourism revenue. This trend suggests that boosting arrivals alone may not suffice to offset broader economic headwinds, underscoring the urgency for Thailand to enhance both tourist volume and per capita expenditure through diversified strategies and improved market stability.
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