According to Bot’s latest Press Release, the Thai economy continued to be on a decelerating trend in November, prompting the Central Bank to use the exact same words from its previous Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions in October, to describe the overall situation in November.
The value of merchandise exports continued to contract, mainly due to the economic slowdown of trading partners, consistent with deterioration in merchandise imports, manufacturing production and private investment indicators.
Public spending also contracted from both current and capital expenditures. Meanwhile, private consumption indicators continued to decelerate amid support from the government’s economic stimulus measures. The tourism sector continued to expand.
On the stability front, headline inflation edged up from the previous month on the back of higher core inflation and lower contraction in energy prices. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate slightly increased while the number of employed persons was unchanged. The current account remained surplus. The capital and financial accounts posted a deficit from the asset position.
Details of the economic conditions are as follows:
The value of exports dropped by 7.7 percent
The value of merchandise exports contracted by 7.7 percent from the same period last year, nearly the same as export values excluding gold.
The contraction of exports in almost all categories was due to
1) the economic slowdown of trading partners;
2) the non-obvious recovery in electronic cycle; and
3) the contraction of global crude oil prices, coupled with the temporary maintenance shutdown of some oil refineries, leading to the contraction of petroleum-related products exports, both in terms of prices and quantity.
Additionally, structural changes in production and global trade as a result of trade tensions caused some Thai export products to be replaced by Chinese products in ASEAN markets. However, exports of agro-manufacturing products continued to expand. As a consequence of the merchandise exports contraction, manufacturing production continued to decline.
Imports contracted by 13.9 percent
The value of merchandise imports contracted by 13.9 percent from the same period last year, and excluding gold, imports value contracted by 15.4 percent.
The contraction of imports in almost all categories, consistent with softening economic activities, was attributable to 1) imports of raw materials and intermediate goods especially in crude oil, partly due to the maintenance shutdown of some oil refineries; 2) imports of capital goods mainly from turbo-jets and telecommunication equipment;…